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We
usually take a casual look at the maps from the Storm
Prediction Center. In this day of weather
specialization, these guys watch for severe
thunderstorms and tornadoes.
In the past we have been critical of their work in the
Northeast where severe weather responds to different
stimuli than in the Plains. They do a good job in giving
people like me a 'heads up.' We're much better off with
them, than without them. More flexibility in issuing
watches here would be helpful.
I've watched with great interest over the past few days
as they've posted a high risk outlook for severe weather
over a large area. 'High risk' and 'large area' are rare
and usually mutually exclusive.
The National Hurricane Center's Pasch acknowledged that
techniques need to improve.
"We still have to get better -- 90 percent isn't good
enough. We have to get to 95 or 98 percent accuracy," he
said.
Storm prediction research focus of Darwin conference
Scientists are hoping an international research project
under way in northern Australian will help forecasters
better predict storms.
More the 100 scientists from around the world have
converged on Darwin for a series of experiments on a
tropical storm system.
Planes will fly around the unique storm system north of
Darwin known as Hector and collect data about its
characteristics and influence on the environment and
ozone layer.
Bureau of Meteorology scientist Peter May says the
information could fill a gap in forecasting.
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Hurricane
Wilma Storm Surge Prediction |
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The 2005 hurricane season reached
two more milestones this week: Hurricane Wilma has become the
21st tropical storm of the season and has quickly grown into the
most powerful hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin.
The storm is expected to make landfall in the U.S. late Saturday
on the southwest coast of Florida. Evacuation orders have been
issued for Monroe County, which includes the Florida Keys.
State parks in the Keys have been closed to encourage tourists
to leave the islands, and an evacuation order for residents goes
into effect tomorrow.
Also, patients in Keys hospitals are being airlifted out of the
islands.
Wilma began on October 15 as a tropical depression in the
central Caribbean Sea. When it became a tropical storm two days
later, it was the 21st of the season. The last time that many
tropical storms formed in a single season was 1933.
Wilma has astonished meteorologists with its rapid
intensification. As of 4 p.m. Tuesday, Wilma was a minimal
hurricane with winds of 80 miles an hour (130 kilometers an
hour). But only 18 hours later it had mushroomed into the
Atlantic's most powerful storm.
While computer projections diverged over the course of the day,
the prevailing prediction suggested Hurricane Wilma Storm Surge
Prediction could track west of Cuba and close to the
tourist areas on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday afternoon.
It is then expected to curve eastward and head toward
southwestern Florida.
Authorities in the Florida Keys said they would order a
mandatory evacuation for all residents in effect for the Lower
Keys by noon Thursday and the rest of Monroe County by 6 p.m. |
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