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Storm Prediction


 

We usually take a casual look at the maps from the Storm Prediction Center. In this day of weather specialization, these guys watch for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
In the past we have been critical of their work in the Northeast where severe weather responds to different stimuli than in the Plains. They do a good job in giving people like me a 'heads up.' We're much better off with them, than without them. More flexibility in issuing watches here would be helpful.
I've watched with great interest over the past few days as they've posted a high risk outlook for severe weather over a large area. 'High risk' and 'large area' are rare and usually mutually exclusive.
The National Hurricane Center's Pasch acknowledged that techniques need to improve.

"We still have to get better -- 90 percent isn't good enough. We have to get to 95 or 98 percent accuracy," he said.
Storm prediction research focus of Darwin conference
Scientists are hoping an international research project under way in northern Australian will help forecasters better predict storms.

More the 100 scientists from around the world have converged on Darwin for a series of experiments on a tropical storm system.

Planes will fly around the unique storm system north of Darwin known as Hector and collect data about its characteristics and influence on the environment and ozone layer.

Bureau of Meteorology scientist Peter May says the information could fill a gap in forecasting.

 

   Hurricane Wilma Storm Surge Prediction  
The 2005 hurricane season reached two more milestones this week: Hurricane Wilma has become the 21st tropical storm of the season and has quickly grown into the most powerful hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin.
The storm is expected to make landfall in the U.S. late Saturday on the southwest coast of Florida. Evacuation orders have been issued for Monroe County, which includes the Florida Keys.
State parks in the Keys have been closed to encourage tourists to leave the islands, and an evacuation order for residents goes into effect tomorrow.
Also, patients in Keys hospitals are being airlifted out of the islands.
Wilma began on October 15 as a tropical depression in the central Caribbean Sea. When it became a tropical storm two days later, it was the 21st of the season. The last time that many tropical storms formed in a single season was 1933.
Wilma has astonished meteorologists with its rapid intensification. As of 4 p.m. Tuesday, Wilma was a minimal hurricane with winds of 80 miles an hour (130 kilometers an hour). But only 18 hours later it had mushroomed into the Atlantic's most powerful storm.
While computer projections diverged over the course of the day, the prevailing prediction suggested Hurricane Wilma Storm Surge Prediction  could track west of Cuba and close to the tourist areas on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday afternoon.
It is then expected to curve eastward and head toward southwestern Florida.
Authorities in the Florida Keys said they would order a mandatory evacuation for all residents in effect for the Lower Keys by noon Thursday and the rest of Monroe County by 6 p.m.